MobileMonday Global

^{Gartner forecast: One half billion users in 2010} Mobile TV to reach 60 million subscribers this year

Gartner predicts that Mobile TV will be an opportunity for operator to replace dwindling voice revenue. Mobile TV will become a mainstream service in most developed markets by 2010 with close to half a billion subscribers worldwide.

The marketplace for mobile TV will vary widely by country and will be shared between TV services that are delivered via cellular and broadcast methods. TV services over cellular will grow from 38 million users in 2007 to 356 million in 2010. TV broadcasting will reach 133 million subscribers by 2010 - due in the main to the growing availability of broadcast-enabled phones - with Japan as the region leading the way followed by Western Europe.

The uptake of mobile TV services will grow at a considerable rate over the next few years, but most subscribers will receive mobile TV as part of their mobile subscription, Garner says.

“Uptake will not be driven by consumer demand so much as by operators including TV in basic bundles as a default service so that it appears ‘free’,” said Carolina Milanesi, research director at Gartner. Gartner estimates that only 30 percent of the total number of mobile TV subscribers will ask for the service while 70 percent will receive it as part of their service bundle.

The bundling of Mobile TV services together with questionable early demand for premium content and advertising-funded free TV services will mean that in the short term at least, revenue from mobile TV will be depressed.

In the long run however Gartner predicts that it still has the potential to be a major overall average per revenue per unit (ARPU) component.

“We expect TV services over cellular to show revenue of just over USD 100 million in 2006, growing to USD 15 billion by 2010,” said Ms Milanesi. “Revenue from broadcast TV will grow from USD 200 million to 10.8 billion over the same period.”

Consequently, Gartner is advising operators to consider revenue models for mobile TV carefully. According to Ms Milanesi, rather than competing on tariffs, they should instead focus on creating a unique ‘Mobile TV experience’ in order to attract an increasing number of subscribers.

”Driving mobile TV uptake in the next three years to grow the installed based of subscribers to a point where it starts to look interesting to advertisers will be key. Mobile tariffs are destined only to decrease in the future and advertising will play a pivotal role in operators’ revenue going forward,” said Ms Milanesi.

“The most successful operators where mobile TV is concerned will be those that treat it as a long-term opportunity, not a quick fix.”

Mobile TV Subscribers, Worldwide, 2006-2010
Transport	2006	2007	2010
Cellular	10 942 000	37 76 700	356 058 700
Broadcasting	5 972 500	21 872 300	132 692 800
Total	16 914 500	59 640 000	488 751 500

Source: Gartner

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